Wine + Health 4: Is Moderate Drinking a Myth? Professor Tim Stockwell and the J-Curve Controversy

Professor Tim Stockwell is the most influential figure in the world of alcohol right now. His research claiming there are no health benefits to moderate drinking has attracted wide media attention and directly led to people either moderating their alcohol intake or quitting altogether.

In fact, The New York Times has called him “one of the people most responsible for our cultural course correction on alcohol.”

The J-Curve hypothesis claims that people who drink light to moderate amounts of alcohol have lower all-cause mortality rates than those who drink heavily or not at all. Professor Stockwell challenges this hypothesis, arguing that many studies that support the J-Curve fail to account for the "sick quitter" phenomenon. This is what happens when people who have given up alcohol due to bad health are grouped with lifetime abstainers, which makes the health outcomes for moderate drinkers appear more favourable.

But his work has been harshly criticised, by both libertarians and by other scientists. He’s been accused of bias, cherry picking and sloppy referencing.

In this in-depth episode, Professor Stockwell explains his research, pushes back against his critics and explains his ties with Movendi.

This interview covers:

• Tim Stockwell’s history in the alcohol and health space
• What got him interested in the issue of moderate consumption and health
• His work challenging the J-Curve hypothesis
• The “sick quitter” phenomenon and its impact on data
• Answers to the criticisms that he cherry picks data
• A discussion of his ties to Movendi, the Swedish-based temperance group
• The impact of cancer warning labels on alcohol
• Why he wants everybody to drink less, not just problem drinkers

Relevant articles:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/15/magazine/alcohol-health-risks.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/04/health/alcohol-health-effects.html
https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jul/27/why-scientific-support-for-alcohols-health-benefits-is-fading

Drinks Insider has also interviewed Chris Snowdon, one of Tim Stockwell's harshest critics. You'll find that here: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2k1XtETvfywIi14MYqJYtY
And here is a summary of Snowdon's criticisms: https://snowdon.substack.com/p/cherry-picking-the-evidence-on-alcohol